Recent polling data from Cigar Aficionado shows a significant lead for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris, contrasting sharply with national polls that suggest a much closer race. This article investigates the reasons behind this discrepancy, exploring the impact of demographics and voter preferences on these divergent results.

Observations on Polling Trends

I’ve been following the campaigns for the American presidential election and noticed something interesting. As of the latest polls (August 23rd, at the time of writing), Kamala Harris holds a 3.1-point lead over Donald Trump, with 48.4% versus 45.3%, according to data from The Guardian US.

To calculate these averages, The Guardian US combined head-to-head and multi-candidate national polls, creating a rolling 10-day average for each candidate. Their poll tracker filters out lower-quality pollsters and relies on polls gathered by FiveThirtyEight.

However, just a week earlier, Cigar Aficionado published an article showing Donald Trump with a massive 27.9-point lead over Kamala Harris. In this poll, 60.9% of Cigar Aficionado readers said they would vote for Trump, while only 33% supported Harris—up from 55.3% versus 34.2% in the previous poll.

Analyzing the Poll Discrepancies

This disparity raises questions. Why is there such a significant difference between the national polls and the cigar smoker polls? Could it be that the majority of cigar smokers are middle-aged white males who tend to vote conservatively? Or is it because more progressive states like California and New York, which have stricter tobacco laws, have fewer cigar enthusiasts?

Neither candidate smokes cigars, so we can’t attribute the difference to cigar-related policies. Both Trump, during his presidency, and Harris, as vice president, have not enacted any specific tobacco policies, so this doesn’t explain the poll gap.

I’m genuinely interested in understanding why the national polls and the Cigar Aficionado polls are so different. Please share your thoughts (respectfully) on this matter.