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I believe nobody missed the news. Fidel Castro resigns and Raul is taking his place.
What’s important for us aficionados is whether this means that the trade embargo is going to be suspended. Unfortunately, it seems like the Americans will have to wait a little. Although Raul Castro expressed his desire to renew diplomatic relations with the United States, I doubt that there will be talk between him and George W. Bush. Check out some interesting information about Raul Castro. So far, Bush rejected the idea of negotiating with Castro (source).
In my opinion, changes will only happen:
a) After the presidential elections in the US
b) After somebody else took over the power in Cuba
I estimate that the embargo will be lifted in 4 years. What about you?
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The US Government’s Policy even before Bush was that talks won’t resume until things start to change. If Cuba starts to actually change things I think you’ll see the US be interested in opening up talks, especially since the original reason for the embargo is long gone.
It depends on who becomes president. McCain and Clinton will refuse to engage the new Castro regime without conditions, so if either one is elected we’ll see the embargo maintained, unless the Cuban gov’t just crumbles for some reason. Obama is taking his chances (in Florida especially) by saying he will open discussions. That’s a far cry from lifting the embargo, but it’s a start. Of course, he’ll also sign SCHIP, which means that if he lifts the embargo we’ll be blessed with 30 or 40 dollar cuban cigars. And a BRAND NEW black market to play games with. Whoopee!
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